Midlands Housing Indicators 2025: A Snapshot of Opportunity and Challenge
As we move through 2025, the Midlands housing landscape is undergoing a significant transformation. A new wave of data, policies, and local plan updates paints a mixed picture of opportunity, challenge, and strategic positioning for developers, planners, and local authorities alike.
Strategic Market Figures: On the Rise
One of the most noticeable trends is the sharp increase in Standard Method (SM) figures for most areas across the Midlands. For example:
- Stratford-on-Avon, part of the joint South Warwickshire plan, sees its SM figure more than double—from 533 to 1,126.
- Malvern Hills, as part of the South Worcestershire Joint Plan, jumps from 1,193 to 2,174.
- Wyre Forest District sees a staggering leap from 211 to 971.
This surge is largely driven by a draft update to the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), signaling heightened demand expectations and potentially increased pressure on local planning authorities (LPAs) to deliver more housing.
Delivery Rates and Five-Year Land Supply (5YHLS)
While SM figures show increased need, the delivery rates reveal where the action is (or isn’t):
- Redditch is outperforming expectations with a delivery rate of 285%, and Wyre Forest follows at 185%.
- In contrast, Bromsgrove, despite high SM figures, has a delivery rate of just 50%—below the required 5-year supply, triggering the presumption in favour of development.
This imbalance between demand and delivery opens the door for speculative applications, particularly where LPAs are behind on their plans or short on land supply.
Plan Status: Where Are the Opportunities?
Understanding where each LPA sits in the plan-making process is crucial:
- Stratford-on-Avon and Warwick (South Warwickshire) are preparing Preferred Options by March 2025, presenting near-term promotion opportunities.
- Rugby and Birmingham are aiming for submission by June 2025, which places them in mid-to-late plan stages.
- Wyre Forest and North Warwickshire have recently adopted plans, making short-term speculative development less likely, but still worth watching for future review triggers.
Summary: Where to Focus
The document provides a helpful “Green” rating system that flags key opportunity areas:
- Green for Growth: Areas like Stratford-on-Avon, Malvern Hills, and Wyre Forest show rising SM figures and either plan gaps or low delivery rates—ideal for site promotion and speculative proposals.
- Green for Presumption: Areas like Bromsgrove fall below the 5-year land supply, giving developers an edge in planning appeals.
- Green for Engagement: Places like Herefordshire (Reg 19 in Spring 2025) offer a window to influence plans before submission.
Final Thoughts
The Midlands housing market in 2025 is a story of contrasts: rising need, varied delivery, and differing stages of plan-making. For developers, promoters, and planners, the message is clear—act strategically, move early, and align with emerging local plans. With many LPAs in flux, now is the time to engage.
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