Central England Housing Review 2025: Where Are the Opportunities?
Central England Housing Review 2025: Where Are the Opportunities?
As we move through 2025, the housing landscape across Central England is undergoing significant shifts. The latest review outlines changes in Standard Method (SM) housing figures, delivery rates, plan statuses, five-year housing land supply (HLS), and Housing Delivery Test (HDT) outcomes. Here’s a snapshot of what’s happening and where the key opportunities lie.
Key Regional Takeaways
Oxfordshire
Oxfordshire remains a strong performer in delivery, with authorities like Vale of White Horse and Cherwell exceeding both their SM targets and HDT scores. Oxford City, however, has seen a dramatic SM uplift (762 to 1,087) but maintains a solid 5.49-year HLS, making it fertile ground for speculative applications given its withdrawn plan.
Opportunity: Early plan stages and underdelivered SM in some areas make Oxfordshire a strategic target for new site promotions.
Hertfordshire
Several LPAs (Local Planning Authorities) such as St Albans, Hertsmere, and Stevenage are facing presumption due to HDT results under 75%. While plan progress varies, these areas are ripe for speculative development due to poor delivery and short land supply.
Opportunity: Speculative applications and early-stage plan promotions—particularly in councils under presumption.
Buckinghamshire
With one of the highest combined SM figures (rising from 2,912 to 4,319), Buckinghamshire shows a strong delivery track record (2,907). However, the lack of detailed plan data suggests further monitoring is necessary.
Opportunity: Oversupply might mean less pressure—but the high SM and housing need may still support promotion in growth areas.
Warwickshire
Standouts include Stratford-on-Avon (now part of a South Warwickshire joint plan), boasting a 254% HDT and a robust 14.55-year land supply. On the flip side, North Warwickshire and Nuneaton & Bedworth are in solid positions for strategic allocations with HDT over 80% and lengthy supply chains.
Opportunity: Late-stage plan areas like Warwick and Stratford are prime for new site promotion ahead of Preferred Options consultations in March 2025.
Bedfordshire
Luton stands out with a significant HDT (499%) despite a drop in SM. Central Bedfordshire is gearing up for a call for sites by January 2025—an early signal for promoters.
Opportunity: Early plan stages (Central Beds) and high HDT in Luton suggest strong ground for new development proposals.
Northamptonshire & West Midlands
While places like West Northamptonshire and North Northants are largely stable (hovering around 100% HDT), Coventry and Birmingham have seen major SM reductions—yet continue to struggle with delivery.
Opportunity: Despite reduced housing need, under delivery in urban centres like Coventry could open the door for urban regeneration and infill development.
Summary: Where Are the Green Lights?
Green Zones for Opportunity:
- Poor delivery + early plan stage = Oxfordshire, Hertfordshire (esp. St Albans, Hertsmere)
- Overprovision + high HDT = Warwickshire, Luton
- High SM increase = Buckinghamshire, Stratford-on-Avon
- Early calls for sites = Central Bedfordshire
In summary, while some authorities are struggling to meet updated SM housing targets, others are dramatically overdelivering, making for a complex but opportunity-rich landscape. Strategic land promoters, developers, and local stakeholders should act now—aligning site submissions with plan reviews and capitalising on HDT shortfalls to make compelling planning cases.
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